India’s Nationwide Monsoon Deficit Swells to 47% as Progress Stalls Discover why India faces a severe 47% monsoon rainfall deficit in June 2026 as the southwest monsoon stalls near Mumbai, threatening crucial kharif crops. Monsoon deficit 2026 india-monsoon-deficit-stalls monsoon 2026, rain deficit, IMD weather update, kharif crops, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, climate change agriculture
India’s Nationwide Monsoon Deficit Swells to 47% as Progress Stalls Discover why India faces a severe 47% monsoon rainfall deficit in June 2026 as the southwest monsoon stalls near Mumbai, threatening crucial kharif crops. Monsoon deficit 2026 india-monsoon-deficit-stalls monsoon 2026, rain deficit, IMD weather update, kharif crops, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, climate change agriculture
A severe slowdown in the southwest monsoon has left India facing a 47% nationwide rainfall deficit between June 4 and June 18, 2026, according to the India Meteorological Department. The stalled weather system has paused just south of Mumbai, triggering agricultural anxieties and prompting emergency federal contingency planning for the kharif sowing season.
Key Takeaways
- India recorded just 42.6 mm of precipitation against the historical normal of 72.2 mm over the two-week mid-June period.
- The critical central agricultural zone is suffering the most severe impact, experiencing a 67% drop in seasonal rainfall.
- Structural meteorological failures, including a weakened Somali jet stream and global El NiΓ±o conditions, are driving the prolonged stall.
- The Union Agriculture Ministry has ordered immediate, district-specific alternative crop and water conservation plans to protect farmers.
New Delhi: With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41% between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.
The country has received just 42.6 mm of rainfall against the normal 72.2 mm during the above-mentioned period.
IMD’s region-wise departure rainfall map shows that rainfall deficits in central India, east and northeast India, the southern peninsula, and northwest India stand at 67%, 42%, 22%, and 6%, respectively.
The weather department said on Thursday that “the absence of favourable large-scale meteorological conditions” was the key reason why the southwest monsoon has failed to advance further into the remaining parts of Maharashtra in the past few days.
There are five main factors behind the slowdown in the monsoon’s northward progress.
First, the current monsoon flow lacks a strong surge from the Arabian Sea, according to the IMD.
“Such surges are generally responsible for enhanced moisture incursion and widespread rainfall leading to further monsoon advance,” said the weather department.
Second, low-level southwesterly winds associated with the monsoon circulation have weakened over the Arabian Sea. This has led to reduced moisture transport towards the Maharashtra coast and interior regions.
Third, the cross-equatorial flow over the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, which acts as a moisture source for the southwest monsoon, has weakened during the recent period, resulting in a reduction in monsoon activity, according to the IMD.
Fourth, monsoon weather systems such as low-pressure areas or cyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, or an offshore trough (a belt of low pressure extending to a large area) of sufficient intensity along the west coast that facilitates monsoon advancement, are absent as of now.
The last factor is the weak phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a moving system of wind, cloud, and pressure that brings rain as it circles around the equator.
When it is in an active phase, it brings more clouds to southern India, which are then carried northwards by the monsoon winds, leading to enhanced rainfall.
“As a result, rainfall activity over most parts of Maharashtra is likely to remain isolated during the next 4-5 days,” said the IMD.
The southwest monsoon’s slow northward progress, coupled with the recent emergence of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to less rainfall in India, can have significant consequences for kharif crops, which need timely rainfall to thrive.
On Tuesday, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan gave directions to identify districts where there is a possibility of low or uneven rainfall, and prepare crop-wise contingency plans in coordination with state governments.
The minister emphasised that special attention should be given to water conservation, moisture management, inter-cropping, and alternative crop patterns.
A separate and practical strategy should be made for every risk-prone district so that farmers do not face any difficulty during the kharif season, directed Chouhan.
Reasons for delay in monsoon
As the monsoon clouds moved towards Mumbai, two factors were key in stopping them from advancing further: dry air at mid-atmospheric levels, and a weak Somali jet stream.
Also called the Findlater Jet, the Somali jet is a low-level air current that travels from the Southern Hemisphere, especially in June and July, and helps advance monsoon winds to cover the northern and inland parts of India. This year, meteorologists said that the jet was weakened, meaning it could not help Mumbaiβs monsoons.
βEither the jet will get stronger over time or a low-pressure area will develop over the Bay of Bengal. Both will help pull the monsoon winds towards the rest of India,β said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of Meteorology and Climate Change at SkyMet Weather.
ThePrint analysed IMDβs reports from the last five years and found that almost every year, the monsoonβs onset across the country has been a little fractured or delayed.
In 2020, the monsoon arrived in Kerala by June 1 and covered the entire subcontinent.
Historical Context and Outlook
Historical meteorology tracking shows that early-season monsoon fractures are increasingly common in the subcontinent. In 2023, the weather system observed a comparable timeline, reaching Kerala on June 8 and lingering before a late-June surge into Mumbai. Weather experts stress that a sluggish start does not automatically dilute the aggregate health of the seasonal cycle, as the phenomena inherently moves in pulsatory bursts.
However, because overall 2026 volumes are modeled at just 90% of the long-period average, the compounding impact of active global El NiΓ±o dynamics presents a heightened baseline risk for interior agricultural yields this year.
FAQs
Why is the 2026 southwest monsoon delayed in reaching Mumbai?
The monsoon has stalled due to local atmospheric barriers, primarily a weakened Somali jet stream (Findlater Jet) and an influx of dry air at mid-level atmospheric layers, which prevent the rain systems from moving past southern Maharashtra.
How severe is the current national rainfall deficit?
Between June 4 and June 18, 2026, India recorded a cumulative rainfall deficit of 41%, receiving only 42.6 mm of water against the historical structural average of 72.2 mm for the period.
Which regions of India are experiencing the worst rain shortages?
Central India faces the deepest deficit at 67%, followed by the eastern and northeastern regions at 42%. The southern peninsula is down 22%, while northwest India remains the least affected with a 6% dip.
What measures are being taken to protect kharif crops from the dry spell?
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has ordered state governments to deploy district-specific emergency agricultural blueprints focusing on water conservation, moisture management, inter-cropping, and shifting to alternative crop strains.
