UK By-Election Results: Tories Confident as SNP Faces Tactical Vote Backlash

The Scottish Conservatives are expressing cautious optimism as votes are tallied in the crucial Aberdeen South by-election. Early indicators suggest a significant shift in voter behavior, with unionist blocks consolidating behind the Tory candidate to challenge the Scottish National Party’s traditional stronghold.

The Scottish Tories are “cautiously optimistic” in the Aberdeen South by-election, the Press Association understands. Party MSP Douglas Lumsden is running in the seat, in a bid to replace former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn. Senior SNP figures have also appeared pessimistic, suggesting a heavy tactical vote in early counting, which has coalesced around the Tory candidate.

Mr Flynn stood down last month after he was elected as an MSP, with Stephen Gethins doing the same. Both were quickly shepherded into John Swinney’s Government.

The campaign for Aberdeen South became a battle over the future of oil and gas, with the Conservatives, Reform and the SNP vying to persuade those in the city – dubbed the energy capital of Europe – they support the industry the most. Candidates reported the fate of the industry was one of the key issues coming up on the doorsteps during canvassing sessions.

Former MP Richard Thomson is running for the SNP, while the Tory candidate is MSP Douglas Lumsden and Reform’s is Jo Hart. Other candidates in the by-election are: Jorg Shelton Eckstein of the Scottish Greens, Scottish Liberal Democrat Mel Sullivan, Labour’s Nurul Hoque Ali, and David Ballantine of the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom.

Meanwhile, the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry contest has been focused on the cost of living, according to those running in the seat. Lawyer and party adviser Lara Bird is contesting the constituency for the SNP, against Reform’s Bill Reid and local Labour councillor Heather Doran. Jack Cruickshanks of the Scottish Tories and Tanvir Ahmad of the Liberal Democrats are also running in the seat.

Polling stations opened at 7am and closed at 10pm, with ballots to be counted overnight. The former SNP Westminster leader now serves in John Swinney’s Government at Holyrood.

Future Outlook

The outcome of these three simultaneous by-elections will heavily dictate the immediate policy directions for both Holyrood and Westminster. In Aberdeen South, a Conservative victory would signal strong public demand for prolonged North Sea oil and gas protections, severely complicating the SNP’s environmental platform. Conversely, the Makerfield results carry structural risks for the broader Labour layout, as a successful Westminster return for regional figures could immediately trigger internal leadership challenges against the current prime ministerial administration.

FAQs

Why is the Aberdeen South by-election taking place?

The by-election was triggered after the sitting representative, former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, vacated his parliamentary seat following his successful election to the Scottish Parliament.

What is the primary campaign issue in the Aberdeen constituency?

The future of the North Sea oil and gas sector serves as the central policy debate, with rival parties competing to convince the electorate of their support for regional energy employers.

Which political parties are contesting the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seat?

The constituency is being contested by candidates representing the Scottish National Party, Reform UK, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservatives, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.