Tories Take Aberdeen South as SNP Faces By-Election Pressure
The Scottish National Party has formally conceded defeat in the Aberdeen South by-election, marking a historic shift as the Scottish Conservatives secure the seat. Concurrently, election officials are tallying ballots in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry contest, with final outcomes anticipated during the early hours of Friday morning.
Key Highlights
- The Scottish Conservatives secured Aberdeen South, marking their first dynamic by-election gain in Scotland since 1967.
- Former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn vacated the Aberdeen South seat to join John Swinney’s Holyrood government.
- Voter turnout in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry plummeted to 31.36%, down sharply from the 2024 general election.
- The Aberdeen South campaign centered heavily on oil and gas, while Arbroath focused on cost-of-living pressures.
Officials continue to count ballots in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election, with final declarations projected to emerge in the early hours of Friday morning.
The dual Westminster by-elections were set in motion for this constituency and Aberdeen South following the resignations of Stephen Gethins and Stephen Flynn from the House of Commons. Both politicians exited London to claim their newly won seats within the Scottish Parliament.
Comprehensive By-Election Outcome and Counting Updates
The statutory framework strictly prohibits individuals from holding dual mandates in the Scottish Parliament and the House of Commons at the same time.
This real-time report will receive rolling updates as the definitive voting figures are declared for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry electoral district.
Tanvir Ahmad, LibDems
Jack Cruickshanks, Conservatives
Heather Dorans, Labour
The parliamentary boundary of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was originally established during the 2024 general election, where Gethins secured the seat for the SNP with a modest 35% vote share.
The Labour Party trailed closely behind, capturing 33% of the vote, while the Conservatives finished third with 16%, followed by Reform UK at 9% and the Liberal Democrats at 5%.
The newly formed seat encompasses geographic territory from the now-abolished constituencies of Dundee East and Angus, both of which historically served as traditional strongholds for the SNP.
Dundee East remained under uninterrupted SNP control from 2005 until its dissolution in 2024. Meanwhile, Angus returned SNP lawmakers from 1997 to 2017, and again from 2019 to 2024, interrupted only by a brief Conservative tenure between 2017 and 2019.
A total of five candidates contested the ballot on Thursday, representing the SNP, Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK.
Comparative Contest Metrics
This specific race emerged as the least contested among the three UK parliamentary seats up for grabs on Thursday.
The defensive cushion for the SNP was exceptionally narrow, with the party defending a 2024 majority of just 859 votes.
Data from the 2022 Scottish census indicates that 96.8% of the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry population identifies as white, a metric exceeding the Scottish average of 92.9% and the UK benchmark of 83.0%.
Furthermore, approximately 94% of the local population was born within the United Kingdom, contrasting with 90% across Scotland and 84% for the UK as a whole.
Child poverty metrics revealed that 12.0% of children lived in low-income households locally during the 2024/25 period, sitting marginally below the Scottish rate of 12.3% and significantly under the UK wide average of 19.3%.
The claimant count for unemployment benefits among residents aged 16 to 64 stood at 3.1% in April 2026. This perfectly mirrors the broader Scottish unemployment benchmark of 3.1% while remaining below the UK average of 3.9%.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
The stunning victory by Conservative MSP Douglas Lumsden over the SNP’s Richard Thomson in Aberdeen South upends decades of political precedent. By capturing the energy capital of Europe, the Tories leveraged aggressive pro-North Sea oil and gas campaigns to win over an electorate deeply concerned about industrial transition.
Conversely, the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry race highlighted severe voter fatigue. The collapse in voter turnout to 31.36%, down from 58% in 2024, underscores an electorate increasingly preoccupied with immediate economic survival rather than constitutional debates. As both Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins transition into John Swinney’s Holyrood cabinet, the SNP faces a steep rebuilding climb ahead of the 2029 general election.
FAQs
Why did Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins resign their Westminster seats?
UK law strictly prohibits politicians from serving simultaneously as members of the UK Parliament in London and the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. Both individuals resigned their House of Commons seats after successfully entering Holyrood.
What was the voter turnout for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?
Voter turnout dropped significantly to 31.36%, representing a sharp contraction from the nearly 58% turnout recorded during the 2024 general election.
Why is the Conservative victory in Aberdeen South considered historic?
The win marks the first time since 1967 that the Conservative Party has gained a parliamentary seat during a Scottish Westminster by-election. It is also only the fifth time this century that the Tories have gained any seat via a Westminster by-election.
What were the central policy issues driving these campaigns?
The Aberdeen South campaign turned into a fierce debate over the future of the oil and gas sector. In contrast, candidates in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry race reported that local voters were primarily focused on the rising cost of living.
