South Korea First-Grade Enrollment to Fall Below 300,000

South Korea’s first-grade intake is projected to fall below 300,000 in 2027 for the first time. Enrollment stood at 301,442 in 2026, the lowest level since records began in 1964.

The figures, compiled by KEDI and KOSIS, show how declining birth rates are reshaping the country’s education system. The projected threshold comes just three years after first-grade enrollment dropped below 400,000, marking another milestone in South Korea’s demographic contraction.

The decline reflects a shrinking generation of school-age children. South Korea recorded 272,337 births in 2020, down approximately 10 percent from 302,676 in 2019.

Children born in 2020 form the principal age cohort expected to enter elementary school next year.

Enrollment Declines from Historical Peak

KEDI historical records show that 1,055,632 children entered elementary school in 1968, the highest figure in the recorded series. The projected 2027 intake represents less than 30 percent of that historical peak, illustrating the scale of the long-term decline.

The contraction accelerated in recent years. First-grade enrollment reached 353,828 in 2024, marking the first time the incoming class fell into the 300,000 range.

KEDI and KOSIS statistics indicate that the number of new elementary students has declined for four consecutive years.

Actual first-grade registration figures generally fall below the number of births recorded for the corresponding birth year. Over a 20-year period, enrollment averaged 2.6 percent lower than those birth cohorts, reflecting factors including early enrollment, childhood mortality and international migration.

This distinction is important when assessing future admissions. Birth statistics provide a foundation for enrollment forecasts, but the number of children entering classrooms also depends on demographic movements and administrative registration patterns.

Revised Forecasts Through 2031

The Ministry of Education projects that first-grade enrollment will fall below 300,000 in 2027, based on revised demographic estimates and administrative registration data.

The ministry’s projections indicate successive declines: 277,674 in 2027, 262,309 in 2028 and 247,591 in 2029. Intake is expected to fall further to 232,268 in 2030 before reaching 220,481 in 2031.

The forecasts incorporate educational statistics and resident registration information maintained by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Updated population estimates allow education planners to adjust projections as the number and distribution of school-age children change.

Recent birth statistics offer a different perspective on later generations. The Ministry of Data and Statistics recorded 238,317 births in 2024 and 254,341 in 2025, indicating a modest recovery in annual births.

However, these children will not enter elementary school until later academic years. Consequently, the more recent increase in births does not immediately reverse the projected contraction affecting incoming classes through the end of the decade.

School Closures Reach Major Cities

Falling enrollment is already affecting school operations beyond South Korea’s rural communities.

Deungmyeong Elementary School in western Seoul reported zero incoming first graders for the 2026 academic year. The absence of incoming students illustrates the pressure facing schools as enrollment declines.

The zero-intake situation has prompted an administrative merger, extending school consolidation pressures into the capital.

School consolidation is no longer confined to rural provinces, as shrinking first-grade cohorts affect urban education infrastructure. Educational authorities must increasingly account for changes in student numbers when determining how schools operate and where classroom capacity is needed.

The effects also extend beyond individual school buildings. Smaller incoming classes create challenges for maintaining existing educational facilities and distributing teaching resources across districts with declining school-age populations.

Broader Pressure on Education Infrastructure

The demographic contraction extends beyond first-grade admissions. Ministry of Education figures show combined enrollment across elementary, middle and high schools falling to approximately 4.84 million students in 2026, below the historical five-million threshold.

The projected decline in incoming cohorts could place additional pressure on school facilities and staffing in subsequent academic years.

The shrinking student pipeline also creates longer-term recruitment challenges for secondary schools and universities. As smaller elementary classes advance through the education system, the effects of declining births will gradually reach higher levels of education.

The next major measurement will come with the 2027 academic intake, when actual registration figures will establish whether South Korea has crossed the projected threshold and how closely enrollment follows the ministry’s demographic forecasts.