Climate change weakens mild Santa Ana winds, study finds
Key Takeaway: A new UCLA-led study published in Earth’s Future finds that anthropogenic warming reduces weak and moderate offshore winds in Southern California, though extreme fire-weather winds remain unaffected.
Climate change is weakening Southern California’s mild Santa Ana winds but leaving the extreme, fire-driving gusts untouched, a new UCLA-led study finds, projecting about 5% fewer offshore wind days by the end of the century.
Key findings of the study
The researchers write that the multimodel mean projects about 5% fewer offshore wind days by the end of the century, with individual models ranging from +1% to -10%. According to the paper, this decline is concentrated in weak-to-moderate events falling below the 75th percentile of the desert-coast potential-temperature contrast.
By contrast, the paper states that there is no statistically significant change in extreme events above the 95th percentile. Furthermore, the researchers write that vapour pressure deficit during extreme Santa Anas is projected to be 22 +/- 9% higher, indicating increased dryness.
we find that this effect only reduces weak and moderate offshore wind events. Extreme events are unaffected.
Madakumbura et al., Earth’s Future
Comparing climate models and previous work
Methodological differences lead to varying projections across studies. A July 2025 paper from NOAA led by Tom Delworth’s group estimated that about 10% of Santa Anas would be eliminated by the end of the century using a single coarse-resolution 25-kilometre CMIP6 model. Delworth told the Los Angeles Times: “That’s not going to save you much,” adding “because it’s really the severe ones that do all the damage, and we see no signs those will decrease.”
In comparison, the new UCLA paper utilises dynamical downscaling of 13 CMIP6 Earth system models at 9-kilometre resolution, arriving at a multimodel mean of -5%. Additionally, a 2019 Scripps study by Guzman-Morales and Gershunov projected an average drop of 18% toward the end of the 21st century, concentrated in fall and spring.
Research caveats and fire weather
The authors outline several important limitations to their work. According to the paper, there is high model uncertainty in the extreme tail, driven by only 13 non-independent models where some trends are non-significant.
The paper also states that simulations resolve wind and aridity but not fuels, ignition, or fire behaviour, meaning the fire-weather assessment is an inference. Alexander Gershunov of Scripps told the Los Angeles Times: “That means that the window of opportunity for wildfire may still be expanding”.
Key Story Metrics
| Figure | Reported Status |
|---|---|
| UCLA study (2026): 13 CMIP6 models, 9-km downscaling | -5% multimodel mean (+1% to -10% range) |
| NOAA study (2025): single coarse model, 25-km | About 10% of Santa Anas eliminated |
| Scripps study (2019): Guzman-Morales and Gershunov | Average drop of 18% toward end of century |
✓ Verified
A UCLA-led team (Madakumbura et al.) published the study in Earth’s Future on 17 September 2026 (the paper). The multimodel mean projects about 5% fewer offshore wind days by end of century, with a model range of +1% to -10%. The decline is concentrated in weak-to-moderate events below the 75th percentile; there is no statistically significant change in extreme events above the 95th percentile. A July 2025 NOAA paper estimated about 10% of Santa Anas eliminated using a single 25-km model (the Los Angeles Times). Vapor pressure deficit during extreme Santa Anas is projected 22 +/- 9% higher.
⚠ Still needs confirmation
High model uncertainty in the extreme tail, with only 13 non-independent models and some trends non-significant. Simulations resolve wind and aridity but not fuels, ignition, or fire behaviour. The observational dataset may miss urbanisation and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Santa Ana event types differ; regime-specific responses need future research.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the study find?
Climate change is reducing weak-to-moderate Santa Ana wind events, projecting about 5% fewer offshore wind days by the end of the century, but extreme fire-weather winds show no significant change.
Does this mean less wildfire danger?
No, because the extreme winds that drive the worst fires are unchanged, and dryness during extremes is projected to be 22 +/- 9% higher.
How does this compare with earlier work?
A July 2025 NOAA paper estimated about 10% of Santa Anas eliminated using a single coarse model, whereas the new multimodel study reports a mean of -5%.
What are the model caveats?
There is high uncertainty in the extreme tail, and simulations resolve wind and aridity but do not simulate fuels, ignition, or fire behaviour.
- Los Angeles Times print edition: Climate change curbs Santa Anas (via Magzter)
- Los Angeles Times: Climate change is weakening Santa Anas
- AGU Earth’s Future: Anthropogenic Warming Weakens Mild Offshore Winds in Southern California but Not the Extreme Fire-Weather Winds
- Scripps: Climate change may suppress Santa Ana winds, particularly fall
- Science: California’s fire-fanning Santa Ana winds may not get any better with climate change
Editor’s note: The Los Angeles Times print edition was read via its Magzter page; the underlying research paper is open access and was read in full, including its stated caveats.
