Single-family housing starts fall amid high rates
Key Takeaway: New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a drop in single-family housing starts and permits during September 2026. Affordability challenges and rising borrowing costs continue to impact the residential construction sector.
Single-family housing starts fell 4.6% to an annualized rate of 859,000 in September 2026, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the San Joaquin Valley Sun. Total housing starts decreased by 5.2% to 1.221 million, while total permits fell 0.2% to 1.400 million.
Builder confidence also dropped significantly, reaching an index level of 29 according to the NAHB and WRE News. This represents the lowest reading since June 2012, with 43% of builders reporting price cuts in October.
Permits and Completions Hit Lows
Single-family building permits declined 4.0% to 845,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking a 3.5-year low and a 4.8% decrease year over year. Single-family completions dropped 2.4% to 840,000.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40%, representing the highest level in nearly three years. Industry headwinds also include material costs, diesel prices, labour shortages, and immigration crackdowns.
Housing starts declined in September as high mortgage rates, persistent affordability challenges and rising construction costs held back home building,
Bill Owens, NAHB
Multifamily Data Discrepancies and Margins
Reports on multifamily construction varied by outlet. The San Joaquin Valley Sun and Realtor.com reported multifamily starts fell 7.2% month over month and 25.9% year over year, whereas the NAHB reported a 6.7% month over month and 24.9% year over year decline.
Additionally, WRE News reported a Census Bureau margin of error of ±11.8%, indicating that the reported decline should be interpreted with caution.
The market is not conducive to building right now, and the diminished starts and completions figures make that clear,
Joel Berner, Realtor.com
Key Story Metrics
| Figure | Reported Status |
|---|---|
| Single-family housing starts change | -4.6% (September 2026) |
| Single-family building permits | 845,000 SAAR (September 2026) |
| Total housing starts | 1.221 million (September 2026) |
| Total building permits | 1.400 million (September 2026) |
| NAHB builder confidence index | 29 (October 2026) |
| Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.40% (September 2026) |
✓ Verified
Single-family housing starts fell 4.6% to 859,000 SAAR in September 2026 per U.S. Census Bureau and San Joaquin Valley Sun.
Single-family building permits fell 4.0% to 845,000 SAAR, marking a 3.5-year low per San Joaquin Valley Sun.
Total housing starts fell 5.2% to 1.221 million per U.S. Census Bureau.
NAHB and Wells Fargo builder confidence dropped to 29, the lowest since June 2012, with 43% of builders cutting prices per WRE News.
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40% per San Joaquin Valley Sun.
⚠ Still needs confirmation
Multifamily starts declined either 7.2% or 6.7% month over month depending on the reporting source.
Multifamily permits increased either 5.9% or 6.1% month over month depending on the reporting source.
Frequently Asked Questions
What drove the September decline?
High mortgage rates at 7.40%, persistent affordability challenges, and rising construction costs held back home building, per NAHB.
Are permits falling too?
Single-family permits fell 4.0% to 845,000 SAAR, a 3.5-year low, while total permits slipped 0.2% to 1.4 million.
How reliable are these numbers?
The Census Bureau has a margin of error of 11.8%, meaning the reported decline should be treated cautiously, per WRE News.
Editor’s note: This article reflects housing data released in September and October 2026. Certain multifamily metrics contain source discrepancies as noted.
